The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has confirmed that it will modify the method used in the next version of its Mortality Projections Model ‘CMI_2020’. This is due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on mortality rates in England and Wales this year – which have been well outside the range of year-on-year changes seen in the past 40 years.
Wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI seeks to produce high-quality and impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers to further actuarial understanding.
The CMI mortality projections model is widely used in the pensions and insurance industries to project future mortality. The CMI expects to release CMI_2020 in March 2021.
“While 2020 mortality experience will affect actuarial calculations, it is likely to be an outlier and not indicative of the future path that mortality rates will follow. For this reason, CMI_2020 will place no weight on the data for 2020 when projecting mortality rates,” said CMI.
The CMI had consulted with users of the model on these changes in September. Respondents acknowledged that there was no perfect way to address the impact of the pandemic on the model but were strongly supportive of the decision to discount the 2020 data.