China’s share of global premiums will continue to rise rapidly to an estimated 18% in 2030, half the share of the US, Swiss Re Institute predicts in its latest sigma report. The forecast 18% is almost double China’s 10% share of the global market last year.
Excluding medical insurance premiums, however, China remains on track to become the largest insurance market globally by the mid-2030s, says the report titled “World insurance: Riding out the 2020 pandemic storm”.

By then, India, another emerging giant, will also be among the 10 largest insurance markets of the world, overtaking Canada and Taiwan which are expected to jointly be in the 10th position.

The sigma report forecasts that the top 10 insurance markets in the world by the mid-2030s will be:      














Market


Global market share %


Total premium income ($ bn)




1980


2019


2030 f


1980


2019


2030 f




US


46


39


36


229


2469


3,660




China


0


10


18


0


617


1,777




Japan


15


7.3


6.1


75


459


621




UK


6.9


5.8


4.0


35


366


404




France


5.1


4.2


3.2


26


262


325




Germany


8.0


3.9


3.2


40


244


320




South Korea


0.3


2.8


2.5


2


175


259




Italy


1.7


2.7


2.4


8


168


247




India


0.4


1.7


2.3


2


106


234




Canada


2.6


2.1


2.0


13


133


205




Taiwan


0.1


1.9


2.0


1


118


205


 

Short term outlook

The mainland Chinese insurance market, even with a 3ppt pullback due to COVID-19, is forecast to grow by 7% this year and next, mainly due to government support under the under the rural revitalisation strategy and rising risk awareness, says the report.

In comparison, the overall global market growth will be dragged down by 3 ppt in 2020 and 2021 from the pre-recession growth trajectory. Overall premium volumes will be back at 2019 levels next year, but 1.5% annual average contraction of global life premiums is forecast over the two years, while in non-life, flat premium growth is forecast in 2020, followed by a rebound in 2021 supported by rate increases and protracted economic recovery.

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